BSRIA Worldwide Market Intelligence (WMI) team hosted a webinar last month to present preliminary data from its upcoming reports in the HVAC & BACS markets.
Globally, the heating markets were negatively affected in 2020 by the pandemic and BSRIA expects to see a drop in the market. However, overall residential markets were impacted less than commercial, and the market for heat pumps was the only market across all the HVAC product groups to see growth. This market was driven by legislation, incentives, and building regulations.
Traditional heating markets were already facing challenges ahead of the impact of COVID-19. A drive towards decarbonisation and energy efficiency, combined with climate change generally means a threat to traditional heating and a greater need for cooling and ventilation.
Despite this, there continues to be significant demand for replacement boilers, which will sustain the market longer term. The global market for heat pumps (non a-a) reached some 3 million units in 2020. Whilst the Chinese market saw a drop, the US market was flat, and the European market continued to see significant growth during the pandemic. However, the US now is estimated to account for some 30% of the market volume.
The 2025 outlook for the residential boiler market in Europe is likely to see a small decrease, with heat pumps favoured in new builds.
The BACS market, which covers software, hardware, controllers and field devices, is estimated at 5.8bn in 2020 globally. Due to the shutdown having a heavy impact on commercial businesses and delays in construction projects; the BACS markets have been hit relatively hard with a global downturn in 2020, with India and Latin American countries hit the hardest. China and Germany were least impacted and are already seeing a recovery. Latin America, Australia and the UAE are not expected to recover until at least 2025; whilst the North American market is expected to recover by 2022-23.
Different sectors have been impacted in different ways. Businesses went online. Mass homeworking impacted the office sector, as well as shopping, entertainment, news, and banking. This benefitted online platforms, software suppliers and data centres.
The pandemic put intense focus on the healthcare sector, particularly hospitals which benefitted from additional investment.
However, transport, and in particularly airports, have suffered during the last year as has the hospitality sector, stores, and shopping malls due to enforced lockdowns and social distancing rules.
The longer-term impact remains to be seen, but there is no doubt some of the changes are here to stay, including redevelopment of malls and outlets, combining online offerings with physical stores, and the focus on health & wellness. On the office side, we expect there to be more focus on refits and refurbishment when owners and tenants review their need for office space and potential repurposing of available areas.
The focus on wellness and health & safety will be high on the agenda, which is likely to increase focus on digital/non touch technology to get people back into commercial buildings. We expect to see an increase in several areas which can all be linked and co-ordinated by a smart building management system:
- Improving the flow of air and the quality of air.
- Integrating booking systems so that ventilation can be improved and cleaned periodically.
- Software and sensors to measure space utilisation and potentially alert when people are not socially distancing.
- Checking people’s temperature as they enter certain areas – as a possible warning of any illness.
Cooling and ventilation is high on the agenda following the pandemic and impact of global warming. Like other HVAC segments, different products and regions have been impacted differently. The biggest global market, Asia Pacific, was hit early by the pandemic, but China is already on route to recovery. The pandemic has pushed more emphasis on smart units and increase in sales and ventilation and focus on high spec filters across the key Asian markets, including Japan. However, the region’s commercial segment has suffered due to loss of tourism. Recovery is happening, but at a slow pace.
Due to the ongoing restrictions; the key European HVAC exhibitions are also going digital, including ISH in March. BSRIA would normally provide insight into the European HVAC & Smart trends at this show, but instead will be arranging a webinar in April.
Bookings will be available through: bsria.com/uk/
