A report from think tank Carbon Tracker has found that huge falls in the cost of solar and wind power in the last few years have unlocked an energy reserve that can meet world demand 100 times over.
At current growth rates, The Sky’s the Limit report says, wind and solar will push fossil fuels out of the electricity sector by the mid-2030s. By 2050 they could power the world, displacing fossil fuels entirely and producing cheap, clean energy to support new technologies such as electric vehicles and green hydrogen.
Kingsmill Bond, Carbon Tracker’s energy strategist and report lead author, said: “We are entering a new epoch, comparable to the industrial revolution. Energy will tumble in price and become available to millions more, particularly in low-income countries. Geopolitics will be transformed as nations are freed from expensive imports of coal, oil and gas. Clean renewables will fight catastrophic climate change and free the planet from deadly pollution.”
Global energy consumption in 2019 was 65 Petawatt hours (PWh). However, with current technology the world has the potential to capture more than 5,800 PWh annually from solar PV alone – as much power in a single year as could be generated by burning all known fossil fuel reserves. In addition, onshore and offshore wind could capture nearly 900 PWh a year.
The Sky’s the Limit finds that around 60% of the world’s solar resource and 15% of its wind resource is already economic compared with local fossil fuel generation. By 2030 all the solar and over half of the wind is likely to be economic.
The report says the key barrier to change is now political, but growth is likely to continue as more countries recognise the potential of renewables, and the opportunity is huge: in 2019 solar generated just 0.7 PWh globally and wind 1.4 PWh.
It identifies three key drivers of change.
- Economics – History shows that cheap local energy sources are quickly exploited – the rapid growth of the US shale industry in the 2010s is just one example.
- Climate change – Countries are acting to cut their use of fossil fuels in response to the climate emergency and public concern about pollution.
- Energy independence – 80% of people live in countries that import fossil fuels, so renewables offer the chance to cut costs, create local jobs and reduce their energy dependency.
The report is the first to identify four key groups of countries based on their potential to harness solar and wind resources relative to their domestic consumption:
- Superabundant, with potential at least 1,000 times greater than demand – mainly low-income countries with low energy use in sub-Saharan Africa. Renewables offer prospects of development fuelled by cheap energy.
- Abundant, with potential at least 100 times greater than demand – countries like Australia, Chile and Morocco with well-developed infrastructure and governance. They can aspire to provide renewable power to the rest of the world.
- Replete, with potential at least 10 times greater than demand – countries like China, India and the US which have enough renewable potential to satisfy their domestic needs.
- Stretched, with potentially less than 10 times demand – countries like Japan, Korea and much of Europe face tough political choices about how to tap their renewable resources most effectively.
Countries like the UK and Korea with significant constraints on land availability are likely to make greater use of their offshore wind resources instead of pursuing solar.
The report can be downloaded here: carbontracker.org/reports/the-skys-the-limit/
